Phosphorus: P4 price keeps going up, the benchmark price is CNY23,512/t (+212/t WoW). The supply side has structural contraction, some electric furnaces’ maintenance in Yunnan and Sichuan leads to output reduction, which could not be offset by the production resumption in Guizhou, pulling down the overall operation rate. From the demand side, downstream enterprises made some rigid purchases, resulted a small-scale stockpiling in the first half of the week. However, the price hike of yellow phosphorus in the second half increased the downstream buyers’ cost pressure. As the glyphosate and phosphorus trichloride production operation rate is limited, the delayed purchases result a slow demand. High sulfur prices eroded the cost advantage of wet-processed phosphoric acid, driving demand back to thermal-processed P.A., and results further rise on yellow phosphorus price. In addition, the expected demand growth of lithium iron phosphate for new energy in Q1 is a potential positive factor.
Sulfur: the market has sharp rise again. The benchmark price is CNY4,166/t (+2.7%), increased about 15% since January.1st. Global supply becomes tighter due to facilities maintenance in the Middle East and North America, some domestic refineries also have maintenance plans. Port inventory remains low and holders are reluctant to sell. Sulfur demand is supported by rigid purchases for spring fertilizers production. Intl’ market price is $517-520/t FOB.
Urea: urea market fluctuates narrowly, price ranges at CNY1,690-1,780/t. Supply remains high, with a daily output of 203.4kt under the high operating rate of 86.4%(+1.4%), abundant supply curbing price increases. The weekly output is 1,423.8kt(+18.7kt), in-factory inventory is 946kt(-40.1kt), port inventory remains at 134kt. Winter fertilizers reserves task is ending while spring ploughing & topdressing expectations rise gradually, rigid demand is limited. Compound fertilizers operation rate is 42.96%(+2.88%). The FOB China price is USD405/t(+2.5/t). Urea export from China was 278.3kt(-53.75% MoM) in Dec.
Amsul the benchmark price is CNY1,103/t. Production is influenced due to environmental inspections and profits going down. As the intl’ urea price shows a firm trend, export inquiries of Amsul surge, with coking-grade becoming a procurement focus for its big price gap with caprolactam-grade.
Potash: market is still in uptrend, domestic EXW price is CNY3,150-3,400/t and the port offer of 62% Belarusian is CNY3,500/t. Supply is in a tight balance: port inventory hits an 8-year low, and imported supply is tight due to Belarus production cuts and delayed mining resumption in Canada. Domestic KCl has a low shipping efficiency due to winter snow and facilities maintenance. Border trading are mostly for previous orders, leading to scarce spot circulation. Traders are reluctant to sell, bullish sentiment is strengthened.
SCFI is 1,458 (-116), CCFI is 1208.9(-0.1%).
USD:CNY fluctuates at 1:6.95 level.
