FERTILIZER MARKET WEEKLY OUTLOOK & PRICE TRENDS

·  Yellow Phosphorus: The price has been rising continuously in a single direction, with a weekly increase of about 9.3%. The price has soared from about CNY29,700/t to CNY33,962/t. P4 price sharply rose CNY1,500/t in Yun’nan on May.22 single-day. The reason is the increase in the price of upstream raw materials and the decline in the operating rate of the main production areas, resulting in a shortage of spot supply.

·  Sulfur: The price is at a high level(CNY7,550/t). Affected by the Middle-East situation, the supply of sulfur has decreased, and the global sulfur spot price has soared sharply. Data from the customhouse, China’s sulfur imports stood at 295,500 tons in April 2026, dropping 42.77% month-on-month and 72.39% year-on-year, tight supply support the domestic spot price. In the domestic market, due to the high import dependence and the continuous decline of inventory, although the peak season of spring-plowing demand has passed, the tight supply situation is difficult to ease in the short term, and the price is fluctuating at a high level.

·  Phosphoric Acid (Thermal and Wet – process): The price is rising strongly, hot-process P.A. in Sichuan already halted quotation, while wet-process P.A. in the east region rose to CNY10,300/t. The high price of yellow phosphorus and sulfur caused the production cost of phosphoric acid. At the same time, the demand for downstream phosphate fertilizers provides certain support, promoting the price of phosphoric acid to rise.

·  Urea: The price shows a further downward trend as there is still no news on export window open. The daily output of urea in China is high, and the enterprise operating rate is above 90%, with a surplus of supply. The agricultural demand enters slack season, and the industrial demand also declines seasonally. The operating rate of compound fertilizers decreases, and the overall transaction is sluggish. In-factory inventory of urea has soared, and the manufacturers have a strong willingness to reduce prices to remove inventory. In addition, the decline in coal prices weakens the cost support. 

·  Breaking news: On May.22, the coal mine gas explosion in Shanxi caused at least 90 dead, the rescue still keeps on. Let’s mourn for the dead and pray for more workers to be saved alive. This will obviously influence the coal-based urea production as most coal mines would be halted for a while for safety inspection.

·  Ammonium Sulfate: Amsul price is fluctuating in downtrend. Since mid May, the peak season of spring plowing fertilizer use has ended, and the downstream demand is weak with lower purchase volume of Amsul. Export side, the international nitrogen fertilizer market has returned to rationality and export demand has slowed down. Moreover, rumors export policy adjustment further suppress market confidence.

·  Potassium Chloride: The price is running stably. The domestic potassium chloride market is sluggish both on supply side and demand side. The port inventory is relatively tight.

·  Potassium Sulfate: SOP price is stable (CNY4,073/t) with a slight uptrend. SOP market price is facing cost inversion, and the overall operating rate is maintained at a low level of 45% – 50%. Xinjiang Luobupo facilities would start maintenance at the end of May, and the supply will be temporarily tightened. Traders are holding up prices, making the price stable with a slight upward trend.

·  Monoammonium Phosphate: MAP price is stable at CNY4,260/t. The high cost support and the increase in the demand for summer fertilizers. Most manufacturers have halted signing new orders, mainly produce for previous orders.

·  Diammonium Phosphate: The price is generally stable. The market demand is light, and the new order transactions are limited.

·  SCFI (SHANGHAI CONTAINERIZED FREIGHT INDEX) is 2,218 (+78), CCFI (CHINA CONTAINERIZED FREIGHT INDEX) is 1,317(+2.9%)

·  USD:CNY currency rate is 1:6.78 to 1:6.8.