Phosphorus: the market slows down again, avg. price slightly slid to CNY22,396/t. Production rate is steady at 68% level. Demand side becomes cautious purchasing. Factories attempt to hold price, while buy side resists price above CNY22,200/t.
Phosphoric acid: average price of 85% H.P. phosphoric acid decline 0.45% WoW to CNY6,700/t. Wet-process P.A. benchmark price is CNY7,167/t. Though the autumn fertilizer reserves support P.A. price, market oversupply would control the uptrend.
Sulfur: port spot prices rose then fell, average price is CNY2,345/t(+0.21% WoW) in Yangtze River region. Inventory surges to 2.49mln tons (+55.6kt WoW). Domestic sulfur cost is stable at CNY2,350/t, with ample supply (5.2kt-5.5kt/day). Import volume is 5.34mln tons in June (+6% YoY). Port inventory rises to 2.46mln tons, about 17% higher than Jan. Weak demand persists due to low operation rates on MAP(59.37%) & DAP(57.51%). Weak consolidation persists amid high inventories, price may down to CNY2,300-2,350/t. Autumn fertilizer demand and LFP growth may offer mid-term support.
Urea: urea prices weakened, about CNY1,730-1,820/t in Shangdong. Demand remains sluggish due to agricultural off-season and slow industrial demand. Sufficient supply (daily output >190kt) and rising inventories (in-factory inventory 967.7kt and port inventory 489kt) brings pressure on market pricing. Urea futures closed at CNY1,803/t (-2.56% WoW). The “anti-vicious competition” policy shortly boosted the market sentiment. This Week prices may continue fluctuates weakly. Persistent high output (~200kt/day) and tepid demand, coupled with slow export quota implementation, will likely press the price level in CNY1,700-1,750/t range. Autumn fertilizer production starting would be a potential support. China urea FOB price is $435/t (+25/t). Compound fertilizer operation rate is 33.58% (+1.03%). Amsul average price slid 3% WoW to CNY1,160/t, the cost may remain weak.
Potash: port 62% Belarus KCl is CNY3,170-3,400/t (-280/t), but available low price source is limited. Port inventories drop to below 2mln tons, but demand remains sluggish. SOP cost is CNY50/t higher as some facilities halt production for maintenance.
MAP/DAP: MAP prices firmed up, with 55% powder up to CNY3,550/t (+25/t) in Shandong, supported by tight production. DAP domestic sales remained weak, but export volume surged (510kt in June)
SCFI is 1,592(-54), CCFI is 1,261(-3.2%).
USD:CNY still fluctuates between 1:7.14-1:7.17.
