Market Wrap 2642
Phosphoric Acid: slightly up. Quoted at CNY 8,400/t (+0.30% WoW / +0.90% MoM). It edged higher on yellow phosphorus cost pass-through, but thin ammonium phosphate fertilizers buying capped the gain. It is a cost-led tick with no demand support.
Sulfur: loser of the week. Price is CNY 6,652/t (-10.01% WoW / -13.65% MoM). Domestic refineries destocked aggressively, cutting solid and liquid sulfur offers. Import side, low-priced materials arrived ports in bulk, and Middle East contract prices kept sliding, spot price also fell sharply under pressure. Port inventory was 1,123.5kt (-53% YoY).
Phosphate Rock: firm at high levels. Domestic supply and demand both soft, buyer side restocking only; prices held steady (about CNY 1,030/t, USD 135/t). Tightening overseas supply and low imports give firm support on pricing, with the north-south gap narrowing.
Urea: down then a mild bounce. The benchmark price was CNY 1,735/t (-2.26% WoW / -4.16% MoM). Futures price slid to CNY 1,667/t (-2.0%) on Oct 14, later rebounding to CNY 1,676/t (+1.09%) on Oct 16. Port inventory was 578.4kt (+35.5kt, +6.54% WoW) on Oct.15. Export side, small gran. price was USD345-350/t FOB. India tender price was below expectation, ports delivering was slow down. Winter reserves haven’t started and domestic demand remained weak.
Amsul/SA: kept falling. Oct 16 benchmark price came down to CNY 1,250/t (-3.3% WoW). Coking-grade softened with major mills cutting offers. Domestic agri. demand and export demand both keep flat, so market price keeps drifting lower. Standard SA export offered at USD211-220/t FOB.
MOP/KCl: trended lower. Imported MOP benchmark price was CNY 3,250/t (-2.99% from CNY 3,350/t at the beginning of the month). Port inventory was 4,383kt in the week (historical high). SOP price was CNY 3,910/t (-0.26% WoW). The key drag is historical high port inventory with exceeded warehousing in some areas, forcing holders to sell with discounts.
Caustic Soda: weak at low level. Adjusted-to-100% liquid-alkali benchmark price was CNY 633/t. NaOH market shifted from tight balance to surplus after the holidays. Capacity expansion continues and domestic demand is difficult to rise.
Soda Ash: spot market remained flat, futures market was weak. Dense ash price was CNY 1,063/t, light ash was about CNY 1,050/t. Futures slipped to the CNY 930-940/t (closed at CNY 939/t Oct 16, -7.4% WoW). Glass buying was sluggish, soda ash inventory would rise.
KOH: soft narrow range. Benchmark CNY 6,710/t (-0.45% MoM). Port high KCl stocks cap cost support, downstream demand is dull with thin deals, KOH follows the downtrend.
Ammonia: turn down with A shape. Liquid ammonia price was CNY 2,617/t (-8.51% WoW / -12.29% MoM), almost back to the level before rising. Major producers like Hualu Hengsheng cut offers on Oct 15. Market supply is back to normal, so the cost push retreated rapidly.
Ocean freight: SCFI on Friday was 3,679.58 (+15.47), CCFI was 1,922.64 (+0.5%). Container shipping cost to India/Pakistan is still USD3,100-3,600/teu. Freight to Southeast Asia keeps rising.
