1.Yellow phosphorus: High level of domestic self-sufficiency with quite small share of export
Yellow phosphorus is a core basic chemical raw material. China’s yellow phosphorus industry has achieved a high self-sufficiency rate of nearly 100%. Domestic production capacity is concentrated in Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou and Hubei, the main regions rich in phosphate ore and hydropower resources. Relying on the mature electric furnace production system, it can fully meet the domestic demand with extremely small import & export volume + low dependence on overseas market. It is one of the few chemicals with completely independent and controllable supply in China.
According to the data from Chinese customhouse, China’s total output of yellow phosphorus in 2025 was about 950kt, while the export volume was only 134.4t(accounting for 0.01% of the total output). From January to August 2026, the domestic output of yellow phosphorus reached 620kt with an export volume of 57.6t(also 0.01% of the total output). It fully indicates that almost all domestic yellow phosphorus output is consumed locally.
From January to August 2026, China’s yellow phosphorus output increased by 18.8% year-on-year (rising from 600kt in the same period of last year to 708kt), with YoY growth in monthly output. The growth rate hit a peak of 37.1% in January, followed by 28% in February and 22% in March. The growth rate of other months stabilized at 10%-18%. Overall, the output of yellow phosphorus achieved a remarkable increase this year, yet the export proportion is negligible, and the demand of domestic downstream industries provides strong support for consumption.
2.Divergent export trends for two major phosphorus-based intermediates
1)Phosphorus trichloride: Export volume and price rise in tandem.
Phosphorus trichloride is mainly used as an intermediate for the synthesis of glyphosate and organophosphorus pesticides. Overseas agrochemical enterprises are highly dependent on Chinese supplies to supplement production raw materials, driving a substantial increase in its export volume this year. Most overseas purchasers are long-term rigid-demand customers with strict requirements for product quality and delivery stability, granting domestic suppliers strong bargaining power at the dominant position.
From January to August 2026, China’s export volume of phosphorus trichloride reached 10,158 tons, a sharp increase of 188% YoY (+72% in April and +57% in July). Its export price showed an overall fluctuating uptrend. The average export price surged 42% YoY in July, and despite a slight correction in August, it still rose 22% YoY.
2)Phosphorus oxychloride: Export volume surges, prices decline.
China boasts a large production capacity of phosphorus oxychloride and a complete supporting system for integrated phosphorus chemical enterprises. Domestic enterprises take the initiative to concede profits to explore overseas markets and secure export orders. From January to August 2026, the export volume of phosphorus oxychloride achieved explosive growth with a YoY increase of 2992%, of which the YoY growth rates in March and April reached 501% and 756% respectively. Unlike phosphorus trichloride, its export price performed weakly, with the average export price dropping 11.8% YoY from January to August.
