Phosphorus: the yellow phosphorus market saw limited low-priced supply, with prices slightly increasing. Supply decreased by 1.99% compared to the previous week, with production at 20,160t (Jun.7-13) versus 20,570t (May.31-Jun.6). Demand was driven by downstream restocking needs, but buyers remained cautious due to high supply and low costs, anticipating a bearish market. Low inventory levels supported some market transactions. The current avg. EXW cost is approximately CNY22,093/t, down by CNY79/t from last week.
Phosphoric acid: H.P.A. price is CNY6,450/t and the yield is 21.435kt(-1.25%). W.P.A. costs CNY6,460/t with no change. Demand showed slight improvement in the traditional phosphate sector, with some MKP producers switching to H.P. acid due to a narrow price gap between thermal and wet-process acid.
Freight fluctuates due to geopolitical risks, tariffs and demand. US West: dropped to $4,120/FEU (-26.5% WoW) due to added capacity. Europe: rose to 1,697.63 index points (+4.6% WoW) on demand recovery. Middle East: Surged 30-45% with $600/TEU surcharge.
Urea: the dealt price is CNY1,700-1,750/t in Shangdong. The weekly volume is 1,413.2kt(-26.2kt), operation rate 87.8%. In-factory typical inventory is 1,177.1kt(+141.7kt). The port typical inventory is 245kt(+45kt). The operation rate is 33.8%(-3.3%) for compound fertilizers and 63.8%(-0.54%) for melamine. Urea FOB costs USD360/t(0/t). Amsul price is CNY1,056/t(+20/t). Short supply due to maintenance and strong export demand supported the uptrend.
Potash: KCl potash prices fluctuated downward, but the new jumbo contract price (USD346/t, +26.7% YoY) provided cost support. Port low inventory (~1mln tons) sustains restocking demand. Globally, supply tightened (Russia/Belarus cut 1.6-1.7M tons), with Brazil/SE Asia prices high (USD365-370/t). Short-term stability is likely, but long-term prices may rise due to oligopoly and geopolitical risks. MKP and NOP prices have no big change as the raw materials cost is stable.
MAP/DAP: prices stabilized with slight weakness, with 55% powder at CNY3,350-3,550/t. Weak demand due to low compound fertilizer operating rates limited purchases. Rising factory inventories led some producers to halt orders. Export support is limited. Short-term stability expected, pending raw material costs and autumn demand.
USD:CNY rose steadily over two weeks (Jun5-18), with central parity climbing from 7.10 to 7.15. Fed’s hawkish stance pushed offshore USD:CNY to 7.18.
