AmSul: Market tends to Sluggish
China’s ammonium sulfate official CIQ policy has been in force for almost one month, with prices fluctuating rapidly amid fundamental and policy factors. As of the closing on August 14, both caprolactam-grade and coke-grade amsul had an overall downward trend for domestic sales and export market.
Shandong market witnessed a fall then sharp rebound after the policy rollout. Purchasing sentiment recovered and prices bounced back following the announcement that non-compliant enterprises could also submit CIQ request orderly during the transition period before mid September. Nevertheless, the market has slipped back into weak stalemate for four major reasons.
Firstly, domestic market is oversupplied. Caprolactam and coking plants keep operation rate around 70%, and most by-product facilities run steadily. Supply is sufficient but downstream demand turns to weak. Compound fertilizer capacity utilization edged down to 29.97%, and is expected to stay low to avoid high inventory pressure. Although Brazil is in its peak demand season for granular ammonium sulfate, geopolitics and CIQ policies cut China’s actual export volumes. China exported 375.3kt to Brazil in June 2026, a 55% drop from 834.1kt in June 2025.
Secondly, the release of China’s second urea export quota paired with India’s low-price tender impact global market sentiment. China rolled out its second urea export quota of 2,000-2,500kt at the end of July. India’s tender inquired for 5,547.5kt urea, and closed with the minimum CIF price at USD390.25/t for the east coast and USD393.65/t for the west coast, dragging international urea prices lower.
Thirdly, ammonium sulfate loses competitiveness on a nitrogen-unit basis. Calculated on Brazil CFR prices, ammonium sulfate’s nitrogen-equivalent cost has surpassed urea since mid July. On Aug.14, granular urea stood at USD415/t, the nitrogen-converted ammonium sulfate benchmark price was USD189/t, while the prevailing ammonium sulfate offer remained at USD220/t.
Finally, market psychology diverges with strong downward pressure from end users. Fundamentals and macro policies point to lower ammonium sulfate prices, yet restricted self-regulated volumes and customs inspection bottlenecks provide partial support, leaving domestic traders negotiating amid price games despite aggressive overseas buyer discounts.
