P4 keeps down, Sulfur & Urea fluctuates
Yellow phosphorus: price kept declining last week. The avg. price fell from CNY26,463/t to CNY26,163/t. Entering rainy season, lower electricity power cost in southwest China lifted plant operation rate and boosted supply. Downstream phosphoric acid and glyphosate factories start summer maintenance, slashing rigid demand, while traders cut price to destock. Though sulfur high price offered cost support, yet loose supply-demand balance result cautious sentiment.
Phosphoric acid: price slid last week, with avg. price at CNY9,262/t (- 3.52% WoW). As the raw materials cost is lower, most factories maintained steady production, leading to sufficient supply. Downstream phosphate and fertilizer plants suspended production due to high temperature, only purchasing small lots as needed. Trading was sluggish with wide negotiation range, spot prices ranged CNY8,600-9,950/t. High phosphate ore prices underpinned costs, yet oversupply remained prominent in short term.
Sulfur: price retreated from high level but later rebounded due to Middle East tension. The avg. price is CNY8,669/t (-2.98% WoW). Low port inventory offered cost support, yet incoming cargoes stranded in the Middle East is going to arrive China, raising supply expectations. Domestic refineries lowered offers to follow the market trend.
Urea: price fluctuated weakly in a narrow range, price in Shangdong is CNY1,770/t. Operation rate stayed high, with output edged up week-on-week. In-factory inventory rose to 1,235.8kt with heavy destocking pressure. Agricultural demand entered off-season with sporadic topdressing only in some regions; compound fertilizer and panel manufacturers runs slowly with limited rigid purchases. So far the export market has no large orders to ease domestic surplus. Factories have to cut price to boost sales with flexible negotiation. Export expectations offered mild support, yet oversupply persisted.
Ammonium sulfate: slumped last week, with weekly average price at CNY1,137/t (-4.75% WoW). Coking and caprolactam plants maintained steady operation, generating ample by-product supply. Weak global urea market erased Amsul export price advantages, leading to sluggish export expectation. Coking-grade price is CNY970-1,050/t in Shangdong, caprolactam-grade is CNY1,130-1,220/t. The customhouse announced new export restriction. Amsul and Amsul+AmNitrate will be included in the export CIQ required list since Jul.16. Fertilizers export will be more difficult.
